CLARITY Act: Two Weeks Left, Odds Fall to 30%
Galaxy Research cut its probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 30%, down from 50% in late June, as the Senate faces a two-week window before its August recess. Seven Democratic senators continue to block floor consideration, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune has said he does not expect a final vote before lawmakers leave Washington.
The Procedural Wall Closing In
Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn put the obstacle plainly: “The calendar is no longer merely an obstacle. It is now the enemy.” Republicans hold 53 seats and need roughly seven Democratic votes to clear the 60-vote threshold. The merged 616-page draft released July 22 added ethics language and illicit-finance provisions but has not moved the holdouts. SkyBridge Capital’s Anthony Scaramucci described the situation accurately when he said the bill’s largest problem is procedural: “If it gets to the floor, it’s going to pass.” That conditional is doing heavy lifting. Polymarket traders now price 2026 passage at 33% to 37%, down from above 80% in February.
The Democratic objections follow a consistent pattern. The same seven senators who rejected the July 23 draft are pressing for tighter rules on government officials’ crypto holdings, stronger consumer protections, and firmer illicit-finance language. Each concession to win a Democratic vote risks losing a Republican one, and the remaining calendar compresses the number of drafts negotiators can circulate before recess.
Bitcoin BTC$63,689.00▼0.80%
Ethereum ETH$1,906.01▲0.00%
Tether USDT$0.9992▲0.00%
BNB BNB$569.04▲0.70%
USDC USDC$0.9997▲0.00%
XRP XRP$1.06▼1.90%
Solana SOL$73.82▼1.00%
TRON TRX$0.3241▼1.30%
Figure Heloc FIGR_HELOC$1.03▲2.50%
Hyperliquid HYPE$55.31▼2.80%Lummis Frames the Bill as a Lazarus Group Countermeasure
Senator Cynthia Lummis has sharpened her case by centering it on North Korea’s Lazarus Group, which Treasury estimates has stolen at least $3.4 billion in crypto since 2007, including $625 million from the Ronin Bridge in 2022 and $1.5 billion from Bybit in February 2025. Lummis points to three specific sections: Section 201 extends Bank Secrecy Act obligations to crypto firms and DeFi front ends; Section 303 adds Treasury sanctions authority targeting Iran; Section 305 creates a safe harbor allowing exchanges to freeze suspicious funds before obtaining a court order, provided they cooperate with law enforcement. “North Korea’s Lazarus Group and other bad actors thrive on gaps in our financial rules,” she posted July 26. Senator Elizabeth Warren has countered that the bill amounts to a sanctions loophole rather than a sanctions tool, a charge that is not frivolous and that Lummis has not yet fully rebutted in public legislative text.
Industry pressure is building from multiple directions. Stand With Crypto announced it will score every senator’s CLARITY Act vote on public lawmaker scorecards visible to its 3 million U.S. advocates ahead of the November midterms. The Crypto Council for Innovation, the Blockchain Association, and the Digital Chamber sent a joint letter urging Senate leaders to start floor debate now rather than wait for a perfect compromise. The crypto market has already registered its verdict: total market capitalization stood at $2.21 trillion on July 27, down 0.94%, while spot Bitcoin ETFs shed roughly $465 million across two sessions, snapping a seven-day inflow streak. The bill’s procedural failure to reach a floor vote is the most precise explanation for both moves. Two weeks is the remaining runway, and the evidence accumulated so far points toward a miss rather than a pass.
