XRP Network Activity Triples but Price Lags as Bulls, Bears and Manipulation Claims Clash
The Disconnect Nobody Can Fully Explain
XRP’s on-chain transaction volume has tripled year-over-year, with daily payments on the XRP Ledger approaching 3 million, yet the token trades at $1.41, down roughly 24% year-to-date and still more than 60% below its July 2025 peak near $3.65. That gap between network growth and price performance is now the central argument in a market debate that has drawn in cycle analysts, longtime critics, manipulation theorists, and Ripple’s own technical leadership. XRP transactions tripling while price stays muted is not a new phenomenon in crypto, but the scale of divergence here demands an honest look at what it actually means.
The Network Numbers Are Real
XRPScan ledger data shows February 2026 averaging 1.3 million daily transactions, with more recent counts pushing toward 3 million. That is a 300% year-over-year jump. Tokenized real-world assets on the ledger have surged 35% to $461 million. Ripple has rolled out permissioned markets, protocol lending, and confidential transfers as infrastructure upgrades, and has expanded its stablecoin payment platform globally for banks and fintech companies. Institutional products tied to XRP now hold approximately $1.4 billion in accumulated ETF assets, as covered in our earlier reporting on XRP ETF resilience and Goldman Sachs’ position at the top of holdings.
Ripple also announced a $750 million share buyback that values the company at approximately $50 billion. That is a meaningful corporate signal. It does not automatically translate into token price appreciation, but it reinforces that the entity building the ecosystem is not acting like a distressed seller.
Schwartz Adds Nuance Nobody Wanted to Hear
Here is where it gets complicated. Ripple CTO Emeritus David Schwartz addressed the price-activity divergence directly and did not sugarcoat it. RLUSD transactions, RWA tokenization activity, and bridging operations on the XRP Ledger do not directly affect XRP’s price. His reasoning is structural: much of the new transaction volume runs through mechanisms that do not require XRP to be purchased or held. The indirect impact, he argued, could eventually be massive. But eventually is a long runway, and markets trade now.
This is the honest version of the bull case. The infrastructure is real. The path from infrastructure to token demand is real but indirect and slow. Anyone pricing in the full network effect at current levels is making a bet on timing as much as fundamentals.
Monthly RSI and the “Criminally Undervalued” Argument
Technical analysts have pointed to XRP’s monthly RSI hitting its most oversold levels since the 2022 cycle bottom. That comparison carries weight for anyone who remembers what followed in 2023. Some community voices have gone further, calling XRP criminally undervalued at current prices, pointing to the combination of oversold technicals, institutional accumulation, and surging on-chain activity as a setup the market is ignoring at its own risk. Immediate resistance sits at $1.42, with a more meaningful level around $1.55 that would begin to signal a genuine trend reversal rather than a bounce within a declining structure.
The Manipulation Claim
A prominent XRP community figure named Arthur went further than technical analysis. He argued publicly that XRP’s trading behavior follows a pattern too consistent and too deliberate to be random market forces. The claim of systematic manipulation is serious and unverified. It is also not unusual for assets with large, passionate communities to develop narratives that explain underperformance through external conspiracy rather than market mechanics. That does not mean the claim is wrong. It means it requires evidence that has not yet been presented publicly.
The Critics Are Getting Louder Too
Veteran crypto analyst Davinci Jeremie, known for his early Bitcoin calls, framed XRP bluntly as “a bank wearing a hoodie,” listing hidden leverage, fake decentralization, pausable exits, insider advantages, and users locked in wrapped IOUs as his core charges. The XRP community pushed back hard, as it always does. Some agreed with him. The argument is not new, but it is gaining traction again precisely because the price-to-activity divergence gives critics fresh material. When a network triples its transaction volume and the token loses a quarter of its value, the question of who captures that value becomes unavoidable.
Where This Leaves the Market
Price forecasts for XRP in 2026 range from $2 to $8.60 depending on the model and the assumptions underneath it. ETF weekly inflows dropped 45% to $1.9 million most recently, which is a short-term demand signal worth watching. The DeFi layer on XRPL remains underdeveloped relative to the transaction growth, which is the honest tension at the heart of the bull case.
The setup has genuine tension inside it. The network is growing fast. The token is technically oversold. The macro environment is difficult. The structural question of whether XRP holders ever capture the value the ledger creates remains open. Sentiment is fractured across bulls, bears, manipulation theorists, and ideological critics, and markets tend to make their biggest moves precisely when the crowd cannot agree on the story. That is not a prediction. It is just how cycles work.
