Trump Backs CFTC as Spain Blocks Prediction Markets
Spain blocked Polymarket and Kalshi on May 26, ordering internet service providers to cut access while its gambling regulator investigates whether the platforms operated without a required license. The same day, U.S. President Donald Trump posted to Truth Social declaring it “critically important” that the CFTC maintain “exclusive authority” over prediction markets. Two moves, two jurisdictions, one very loud signal about where this classification fight is heading.
Spain Calls It Gambling, Full Stop
Spain’s Directorate General for the Regulation of Gambling published formal sanctioning proceedings against both companies, citing apparent unlicensed operation under national gambling law. The block is precautionary and is expected to hold for three to four months while the proceedings run. “In Spain, in line with other European jurisdictions, prediction markets are deemed to constitute games of chance when bets are placed on uncertain future outcomes,” the regulator said. Polymarket said it was “committed to engaging constructively with relevant authorities in every jurisdiction.” Kalshi declined to comment.
Spain joins Australia, France, Poland, Singapore, Ukraine, Switzerland, and Indonesia in restricting or banning Polymarket access. Indonesia acted just days earlier after Polymarket listed contracts on whether President Prabowo Subianto would leave office early. The pattern is consistent: outside the United States, event contracts look like gambling to most regulators, and the legal category determines market access. Kalshi and Polymarket together reported $6.1 billion in combined weekly notional volume, per DeFi Rate, which makes them visible enough to attract exactly this kind of scrutiny.
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Trump’s Truth Social post was blunt, even by his standards. He named Chris Christie, New York Attorney General Letitia James, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as officials undermining federal authority, calling them “SCUM.” Minnesota’s Walz signed a law last week imposing criminal penalties for operating prediction markets without state authorization. Illinois issued a cease-and-desist. James filed suit. Pritzker fired back on Bluesky, accusing Trump of protecting family financial interests, noting that Donald Trump Jr. sits on advisory boards for both Polymarket and Kalshi.
That conflict-of-interest question sits at the center of the political fog here. The New York Times reported over the weekend that CFTC officials who raised concerns about approving platforms with Trump family ties were pushed out of the agency. CFTC Chair Michael Selig, Trump’s sole appointee at the commission, has filed lawsuits against at least five states and argues the agency holds exclusive federal jurisdiction under the Commodity Exchange Act. Trump’s post reinforced that position directly, framing prediction markets as a competitive asset in a global financial race. “Other Countries are after this new form of Financial Market, and we want to remain at the top,” he wrote.
The legal contest between federal preemption and state gambling authority is now heading toward appellate courts, with Supreme Court review a plausible endpoint. For operators, the U.S. federal path offers scale and clarity, as Polymarket’s push to reopen its main exchange to U.S. traders already showed. But the global picture is fragmenting fast. A product that wins federal cover in Washington can still be banned in Madrid by Tuesday afternoon. Sentiment is driving the narrative on both sides of this fight, and the facts are barely keeping up.
